Skarmory's Bracketology – 02/20/24
What is the committee cooking?
Welcome (back?) to Bracketology! If you’re new here (you probably are), I usually go ahead and just drop my seed list, but I’m going to try to make an active comment on one or two teams here on substack. If you want analysis of the bubble, I provide a lot of it over at my bubble watch hosted by my friends at The Low Major. For a general idea of where the consensus of bracketologists stands, check out bracketmatrix.com.
Seed list
Bold indicates autobids and Italics indicate first four teams; first four matchups are in (parenthesis) if possible.
1 seeds: Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona
2 seeds: North Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Marquette
3 seeds: Alabama, Baylor, Iowa State, Duke
4 seeds: San Diego State, Illinois, Auburn, Creighton
5 seeds: Dayton, Wisconsin, Clemson, Florida
6 seeds: Kentucky, Michigan State, Colorado State, BYU
7 seeds: Texas Tech, Utah State, South Carolina, Washington State
8 seeds: TCU, St. Mary’s, Oklahoma, Texas
9 seeds: FAU, Northwestern, Boise State, New Mexico
10 seeds: Nevada, Virginia, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
11 seeds: Nebraska, Grand Canyon, (Ole Miss, Butler), (Providence, Seton Hall)
12 seeds: Indiana State, Princeton, McNeese, Samford
13 seeds: South Florida, Appalachian State, UC Irvine, Akron
14 seeds: Louisiana Tech, UNC-Wilmington, Vermont, High Point
15 seeds: Morehead State, Oakland, Eastern Washington, Colgate
16 seeds: Quinnipiac, Lipscomb, (Southern, South Dakota State), (Norfolk State, Merrimack)
Bubble
Last four byes: Virginia, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Nebraska
Last four in: Ole Miss, Butler, Providence, Seton Hall
First four out: Utah, Drake, Cincinnati, Villanova
Next four out: Gonzaga, Colorado, Wake Forest, Oregon
Comments
You have three Big East teams in your First Four. How does that work? – To be honest, I’m not entirely sure how this is handled in practice, but the interpretation I have of the committee guidelines say two teams can play eachother in the First Four. It reminds me of Dayton being able to play home games in the First Four, so I’m going to roll with it being okay.
Why is Florida a 5-seed? – This is a fun one. I implore you to directly compare Florida and Kentucky’s resumes, and then tell me which one looks better. Especially with the emphasis the committee put on not having any bad losses (notable with SDSU being #14 overall), I think this pushes Florida to the 5-line. My previous candidate was Colorado State, but I shifted them down; anything from the last 5-seed down to about to 8-line is a mess, and honestly that can probably apply from the last 5-seed down to the first four out.
Why are Providence and Seton Hall your last two teams in? – My interpretation of how the committee handled the top 16 reveal was that Q1 win count was relevant (see: Auburn), and generally resume had more of an impact than efficiency metrics. Two of the major contenders for these spots, Gonzaga and Cincinnati, have a heavy reliance on their strong metrics, and I don’t think that’ll cut it this year. Seton Hall also had a few losses with an injured player, and I think the committee will give them some relief there. Utah is the closest candidate – they do have three Q1 wins and five Q2 wins, but ultimately Providence and Seton Hall have more Q1 wins (though less Q2 wins), and Utah has a Q3 loss while Providence doesn’t. The metrics slightly prefer Utah to Providence, and definitely prefer them to Seton Hall, but Seton Hall’s five Q1 wins and some of their losses likely being given less weight due to an injury keep them in the field.
That’s all for me here! Thanks for reading if you got to this point, and if you’re interested in more bracketing content, please check out my bubble watch.
